Trump hints Iran talks could resume this week as US port blockade continues

Diplomacy, it seems, runs on its own clock. Just days after talks between Washington and Tehran appeared to stall entirely, Donald Trump has suggested negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme could restart as early as this week, even as the United States maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports that’s been rattling global oil markets.

Trump made the comments without offering specifics, which is, of course, rather his style. But the signal was enough to nudge crude prices slightly lower on Monday morning, with Brent falling around 1.2% as traders weighed up the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp.

Adding weight to the optimism, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said it was “highly probable” that the two sides would return to the table. Guterres has been quietly working back channels for weeks, and his language, careful as it always is, suggested this isn’t just wishful thinking.

“The parties have not abandoned dialogue. That, in itself, is significant,” one senior UN official told reporters in Geneva, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The US blockade, now entering its third week, has prevented several Iranian cargo vessels from leaving port, a move Washington describes as legitimate economic pressure. Tehran calls it an act of war. The gap between those two positions is, to put it mildly, considerable.

Iran’s foreign ministry has insisted it won’t negotiate “under the shadow of a gun,” while simultaneously leaving the door open through back-channel contacts. It’s the kind of diplomatic two-step both sides have performed before, most notably during the fraught lead-up to the 2015 JCPOA deal.

European foreign ministers are watching closely. Both France and Germany have urged restraint, with Berlin warning that any miscalculation in the Strait of Hormuz could send energy prices to levels that would make last winter’s crisis look manageable.

For ordinary Britons, the blockade is already showing up quietly at the petrol pump, with average forecourt prices ticking up roughly 3p per litre since it began.

Whether talks actually resume this week, or whether this is another round of strategic posturing, may well depend on what happens in the next 48 hours at sea.